The Champions League Round of 16 is where dreams die and legends are born. Our prediction engine has simulated every upcoming tie 10,000 times, accounting for current form, historical knockout performance, home/away differentials, and dozens of other factors. Here's what the data says.
The Methodology
For each simulation, we randomly sample from probability distributions based on our xG models, adjusted for knockout-specific factors like aggregate psychology and away goals impact. The result is a robust picture of each team's chances across the full range of possible outcomes.
The Matchups
Upset Alert: Watch This Tie
Our model gives PSG a 42% chance against Bayern—significantly higher than the market suggests. PSG's new tactical approach under their current management has specifically improved their big-game away record. Don't sleep on this.
Tournament Winner Probabilities
Based on our simulations through to the final, here are the current probabilities for lifting the trophy:
- Manchester City: 22%
- Real Madrid: 18%
- Bayern Munich: 15%
- Arsenal: 12%
- PSG: 10%
- Inter Milan: 8%
- Others: 15%
Note: These probabilities will update after each matchday as new information becomes available. The model learns from every game.
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