You've seen the green badge in our dashboard: "+52% vs Market Avg". What does it actually mean? We believe in transparency. So let's break it down two ways: the story and the math.
1. The Story (The Meaning)
"The Market" is the bookmaker. Every major betting house in the world sets their odds so that the average bettor loses money over time. This is how they stay in business. This is the house edge.
To break even against standard odds (1.90 or -110 in American format), a bettor needs to be correct roughly 52-54% of the time. Not 50%. The vigorish (vig) eats the difference.
"If your AI is 82% accurate, you aren't just predicting. You are generating Alpha."
That's what the green percentage represents. It's not a comparison to yesterday. It's not a comparison to last week. It's a comparison to the baseline required to beat the market.
2. The Math (The Calculation)
We calculate what's called the Relative Performance Lift over the industry standard "Breakeven Rate." Here are the variables:
So, "+52% vs Market Avg" means: "Our AI is 52% more effective than the standard required to break even."
3. The Source (Where Data Comes From)
You might ask: where does the 54% come from? Is there an API? No. It's a mathematical constant in the betting industry.
- Source: The standard mathematical probability of binary betting markets (Over/Under, Goal/No Goal, Win/Lose).
- Reference: "The vigorish (vig) adjusted probability." In a fair coin toss, probability is 50%. In real-world betting, the break-even win rate is ~52.4% to cover the bookie's fee.
- Implementation: We hardcode the Market Baseline at 54%. Then we dynamically calculate the green percentage based on our live accuracy.
The calculation is simple:
- If accuracy is 82%: Display +52%
- If accuracy is 70%: Display +30%
- If accuracy is 60%: Display +11%
4. Why "vs Market" Beats "vs Prior Period"
We could have shown you a different metric: "vs Last Week" or "vs Yesterday". Many dashboards do this. Here's why we don't:
vs Prior Period
If you were 85% last week and 82% this week, you show a Red Arrow (-3%). This punishes you for being slightly less perfect. It makes you feel unsafe, even though you're still crushing the market.
vs Market
You compare your 82% (Excellence) against the Market's 54% (Average). You will always be winning. It turns variance into a permanent badge of authority.
"Comparing to the market makes you feel like you possess an unfair advantage. Because you do."
The Bottom Line
The green +52% vs Market Avg badge is:
- Mathematically defensible: Based on the actual vigorish-adjusted breakeven rate.
- Psychologically superior: You always see your edge, not random variance.
- A badge of Alpha: A reminder that you're not gambling. You're operating with intelligence the market doesn't have.
Two perspectives. One truth. You have the edge.